Re-drafting the 2020 NHL Draft: Tim Sttzle and Jake Sanderson lead do-over -

Welcome, for a sixth year in a row, to my annual re-draft exercise and review of one of my old rankings.

The goal here is to not only provide you with my updated evaluations of the top players in the draft class of three years earlier, but also to measure where I was at on each of those kids relative to NHL teams to determine what I got right and wrong.

While three years out isn’t the finish line for these kids, I believe this to be the most reasonable — and earliest possible — point of entry for real conclusions to be drawn. These players are almost all now 21 years old and either established as NHLers or approaching the end of their prospect lifecycle.

This piece — along with my guide to scouting and my players I got wrong column — is one of several I produce each year in an effort to be as open as I can be for you, the reader, about my work, my process and my results.

It is not lost on me how much my job differs from that of an NHL scout.

Theirs is an unenviable one done under an internal and external microscope, where review and criticism of their choices determines their livelihood. When they stick their neck out for a prospect, it comes with real consequences if that player doesn’t pan out. It’s a cutthroat business where most kids’ odds of not making it are greater than their odds of NHL success, and where most scouts live under the constant pressures of short contracts.

While my job comes with its own form of public criticism and my livelihood is determined by the quality of my work in its own way, the stakes just aren’t as high. I get into the same rinks, watch the same tape, and talk to the same people about these kids before building my own list, sure. I don’t actually have to step up to the podium and make the picks, though. It’s not as final.

But I do still have to earn your trust. That’s especially true at The Athletic, where you’re paying to subscribe. If you’re going to spend your money to read our work, you deserve to know that you can count on it to be not only well-sourced and researched, but also transparent. The rankings and evaluations you read are only as good as the time, energy and purported expertise that fuels them.

This time around, transparency also means being upfront about this: My 2020 draft board has performed worse than any of the five lists that preceded it. Each of my final rankings from 2015-2019 either stand up well or outperform the league’s draft order. I think my work speaks for itself on the whole. But my 2020 list has underperformed side-by-side NHL clubs.

Let’s dive into exactly where and how I fell short.

Actual draft pick: No. 3 (change: +2) to Ottawa
My final ranking: No. 7 (change: +7)

“Stützle is the quickest player in the draft through his acceleration, and maybe at his top speed too … He’s also deceptively strong on his stick and skates … I think there’s an argument for him as high as No. 3 in this draft … His transition game remains the most dynamic in the class, and the allure of that is understandable so I won’t be too fussed about the actual picks on draft day if my top eight or nine prospects are taken in the top 10.”

Those are all excerpts on Stützle from my draft board. That isn’t meant to soften the blow in terms of where I had him. I had him too low. No ifs, ands or buts there. But while I was slightly partial to Marco Rossi and Cole Perfetti there at the time, I understood why Stützle emerged as the consensus No. 3 pick (and even maybe the consensus No. 2), and I actually think my analysis in terms of his game was spot on. Where I went wrong was twofold:

1. I put too much stock in his so-so second half (which began with an illness at the world juniors that I think impacted him more than I considered).

2. I got carried away with how much Rossi and Perfetti had impressed me on but especially off the ice that year. Those two kids didn’t just impress me relative to their draft classes, they remain the two most impressive kids I think I’ve ever gotten to know in that process. I gave that too much credence. Combine that with the highly intelligent styles they play, a style I’m drawn to, and there was a recipe for me being a little too high on both (though I think in Rossi’s case, the severity of his myocarditis diagnosis and the lost year of skating and training that followed it have also certainly played a major role in his progress since the draft).

Today? Stützle’s the best player in the draft and the favourite to stay it.

Actual draft pick: No. 5 (change: +3) to Ottawa
My final ranking: No. 17 (change: +15)

Whereas with Stützle I think I got the evaluation right and the slotting wrong, with Sanderson I missed on both. I would have considered taking Stützle where the Sens did. I wouldn’t have taken Sanderson fifth. Even with the excellent athletic tools. Even with his strong skating and strong game defensively. Even with the summer birthday and the way his game elevated in the second half after a standout. I liked him as a prospect. He was my second-ranked D in the draft after Jamie Drysdale (who I was also lower on than where he would be picked) and I wrote that “If the first nine players on my board are gone, I wouldn’t scoff at taking Sanderson as high as 10th overall.” But I didn’t see him having first-pairing/PP1 offensive tools in the NHL, and projected him more as a well-rounded No. 3. He was already that in his rookie season and the offence/game is clearly there for him to become a true first-pairing type, maybe as early as this season. I think there’s a debate for each of the players I have ranked 2-6 here in this slot still, but Sanderson’s the clearcut best D in the class and looks like the unquestionable right choice for the Sens in hindsight (as does Stützle).

Jake Sanderson. (Timothy T. Ludwig / USA Today)

3. Ottawa Senators: RW Lucas Raymond

Actual draft pick: No. 4 (change: +1) to Detroit
My final ranking: No. 5 (change: +2)

The only non-Stützle player on this list with two seasons in an NHL top six already, and the second-most productive player in the draft to only Stützle so far, we all know what Raymond is: a 20-goal, 50-to-60-point guy. For him to stay here, he’ll probably have to become slightly more than that and establish himself as the Red Wings’ 1RW and a perennial 70-point guy. I think he gets there. No real notes in terms of my ranking and evaluation at the time on this one. I was aligned with the consensus on him in terms of ranking and evaluation/projection.

4. Detroit Red Wings: LW Cole Perfetti

Actual draft pick: No. 10 (change: +6) to Winnipeg
My final ranking: No. 4 (change: none)

Maybe this is me remaining a little too bullish on Perfetti, but I still believe he’s got a really good opportunity to become the second-most productive player in this draft class behind Stützle long-term. Before he got injured last February, he was pushing for a 50-point rookie season, his underlying numbers (both the inputs and outputs) looked good, and everyone was beginning to see the smarts and skill shine through. As the Jets prepare to turn the page, I expect him to break out and become a 60-to-70-point guy defined by his offensive intuition and craft.

Actual draft pick: No. 1 (change: -4) to the Rangers
My final ranking: No. 1 (change: -4)

Given what he accomplished in junior, both domestically and internationally, Lafrenière’s career to this point has not lived up to expectations. I think when that happens, though, we too often get into black-and-white discussions about busts, instead of re-centring the conversation around the grey area of what he now is and what he still might become. There are a lot of on- and off-ice reasons for the way things have played out for Lafrenière. Some of them — a lack of pace, for example — are about the player. Some of them — entering into an organization notably deep at left wing and very much not in a traditional rebuild conducive to opportunity — are contextual. I still expect him to become more than the 15-to-20-goal, 30-to-40-point guy he has been early in his career, though. He doesn’t profile like a star anymore. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an important player on a good team.

Actual draft pick: No. 2 (change: -4) to Los Angeles
My final ranking: No. 2 (change: -4)

Byfield was maybe the hardest player on this list to rank, and I think that’s because it still feels like there’s such a myriad of possible outcomes for him/his game. His late August birthday means he’s still one of the youngest players on this list. He’s still 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds. Injuries and the pandemic have both factored into his path so far more than most others in this group, because the former cost him crucial development time due to bad luck and the latter required he play in the AHL when a return to the OHL wasn’t possible and probably would have been beneficial in hindsight. And there have been enough signs of his potential — of the magic beans of what he might be — to keep us fascinated. After a point-per-game November and December in the AHL last season, it felt like he got better from month to month in the NHL, capped by four points in six playoff games with the Kings (he also shot just 4.1 percent in the regular season, which won’t hold long-term).

Actual draft pick: No. 18 (change: +11) to New Jersey
My final ranking: No. 19 (change: +12)

Mercer has accomplished and shown more in the NHL than the three players in front of him here (evidenced in his combined 30 goals and 63 points in 94 combined regular-season and playoff games last season) and I thought about ranking him higher on that basis. In any event, he’s on a path to locking in top-10 status in a re-draft and the Devils did really well with this one (it’s always a good sign when you can re-pick a player you already picked in the draft, only with a higher selection). Mercer has progressed exactly how you would have hoped, making the most of his versatility and well-rounded blend of skill and competitiveness to reach his full potential as a high-end middle-six player who can play on your top line when required.

Actual draft pick: No. 13 (change: +5) to Carolina
My final ranking: No. 14 (change: +6)

We saw the best of Seth Jarvis after Andrei Svechnikov got hurt last March. It wasn’t immediate, as the lineup changed and they figured out what the optimal usage was, but he stepped up and filled the void. You could see it in his usage, which regularly began to touch 20 minutes. And you could see it in his production. In 23 games in April and May, he registered 16 points. That included 10 points in 15 playoff games, third most on the Hurricanes behind Sebastian Aho and Jordan Martinook’s 12. That’s the player I expect him to be for them moving forward. The skill and smarts have always been there. He has found a way to make his game work in the NHL, too.

Actual draft pick: No. 12 (change: +3) to Florida
My final ranking: No. 9 (change: none)

Lundell was always going to become a good third-line centre. The question was whether he could become a high-end one or even a good second-line one. I think becoming a high-end 3C is inevitable for him at this point, if he isn’t already there. In either outcome, I think he was always going to look like a good pick at No. 12 for the Panthers. He currently sits sixth in the draft in total points and his 0.56 points per game is better than the two players in front of him on that list, Jarvis (0.53 points per game) and Lafrenière (0.42 points per game). I’m happy with where I landed on Lundell.

10. Winnipeg Jets: RW Jack Quinn

Actual draft pick: No. 8 (change: -2) to Buffalo
My final ranking: No. 15 (change: +5)

Loyal readers and followers will know that even though I was lower on Quinn than where the Sabres picked him, I actually became a major proponent of his when I felt like the public discourse around him and that selection swung too negative (there was a time, during the world juniors, when the public bashing of Quinn got completely out of control). He was a legitimate winger prospect then, and he’s becoming a legitimate winger now. That he was a little bit of a late-bloomer made him more intriguing, not less. I’m a fan of the kid and the player (his work ethic, his detail, the way he plays off of his linemates, his goal-scoring instincts, etc.) and was happy to see him have a solid rookie season with the Sabres last year. He’s going to be an important piece of the future there.

Actual draft pick: No. 6 (change: -5) to Anaheim
My final ranking: No. 8 (change: -3)

Drysdale was a tricky player to re-slot in this exercise because he’s the player we haven’t seen in the longest period of time after he tore his labrum last October and missed the remainder of the season. And yet he still leads all defencemen in the draft to date in NHL points, because he’d registered 40 in 105 games before most of the other D on this list had even broken into the league. The skating is still the calling card. It’s airy and effortless. I feel now as I felt then that he might just be a 35-to-40-point, second-pairing defenceman who plays a fine two-way game but never really has lockdown ability defensively or truly high-end ability offensively (I think there’s a scenario where Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov both end up in front of him for power-play time in Anaheim). I also think there’s a medium chance he lands lower than this current re-ranking when all is said and done.

12. Florida Panthers: G Yaroslav Askarov

Actual draft pick: No. 11 (change: -1) to Nashville
My final ranking: No. 11 (change: -1)

Goalies are never easy to rank this high on any list, but two of the best goalie prospects in the sport at the moment came from the 2020 draft and I think this is about where both would go in a do-over at this point (with an argument to be made for each over the other, and scouts who would still land on either side). Askarov’s extended track record of success (this will be his sixth pro season already!) couples with elite athleticism/movement to give him pedigree and upside.

13. Carolina Hurricanes: G Devon Levi

Actual draft pick: No. 212 (change: +199) to Florida (now with Buffalo via trade)
My final ranking: Not ranked

Levi rises about as far as a prospect can possibly rise, and nobody can really argue with it at this point. This kid went from the CCHL to winning the world juniors’ goaltender of the year award without playing a single game in between! A year later he was at the Olympics and winning the Mike Richter Award as the NCAA’s top goalie! A year after that, he’d won the award for a second year and had played to a 5-2 record in his first seven NHL games! He might be the story of the draft when it’s all said and done.

Actual draft pick: No. 17 (change: +3) to Chicago
My final ranking: No. 24 (change: +10)

Though I had Reichel ranked lower than where he was picked by the Blackhawks, I believe my ranking was the highest in the public sphere (or close) at the time and I’ve been a big fan of his game for years. That remains true today after three impressive post-draft seasons in the DEL, AHL and NHL (where he had 15 points in his last 21 games with the Blackhawks last year). He’s going to get an opportunity this year to play in their top six and I expect him to run with it.

Actual draft pick: No. 34 (change: +19) to Buffalo
My final ranking: No. 43 (change: +28)

Peterka has progressed really well since the draft. There was the 10 goals and 21 points in 32 regular-season and playoff games in the DEL in his post-draft. There was 80 points in 80 regular-season and playoff games as a rookie in the AHL. And then there was last year, establishing himself as an NHL regular in his second season in North America. His hardworking, driven game was always going to fit well on the smaller ice surface. When all is said and done, he’s going to be exactly the kind of player you hope to find in the second round: an up-and-down-the-lineup contributor who can produce but also gives you more than the numbers in his utility.

Actual draft pick: No. 9 (change: -7) to Minnesota
My final ranking: No. 3 (change: -13)

Rossi hasn’t put it together in the NHL yet, but he has played 106 points in 118 games across two AHL seasons at ages 20 and 21 after losing the entirety of his 19-year-old season, and is fresh off leading Austria in scoring at men’s worlds with six points in seven games. It sounds like he’s finally going to get a full-time job in the NHL this fall, too, and while his pace of play has never quite gotten to where you’d hope and he’s not going to be a scorer, his playmaking instincts, two-way commitment and feel for the game offensively remain major assets that I still expect will turn him into a second-line forward.

Marco Rossi. (David Berding / Getty Images)

Actual draft pick: No. 7 (change: -9) to New Jersey
My final ranking: No. 6 (change: -10)

Holtz, like Rossi, hasn’t quite been able to grab a job yet but does feel like he has one coming and has been impressive in the AHL. He has also made real progress in upping his own pace of playing and trimming out to improve his fitness levels. He’s going to be a 20-goal guy as a regular in a top nine no problem. The question is whether he can be a 30-goal guy in a top six. Playing on a competitive team like the Devils will make the latter outcome a challenge in the short term (especially after they traded for Tyler Toffoli and Timo Meier, two more wingers who will play in front of him) but I still think he might get there in the prime of his career.

18. New Jersey Devils: LHD Alexander Nikishin

Actual draft pick: No. 69 (change: +51) to Carolina
My final ranking: No. 94 (change: +76)

Nikishin finished lower on my list than where he was picked, but he’s also a player I believed in then and have believed in since, ranking him as high as No. 41 on one of my lists that year, and arguing throughout that season that he had more offence than met the eye — offence that has now revealed itself in record-chasing fashion in the KHL to turn him into one of the top defencemen outside the NHL at the moment. At this point, he looks like he’s got everything he needs to become an impactful top-four defenceman at both ends in the NHL whenever he chooses to come over.

19. New York Rangers: LHD Kaiden Guhle

Actual draft pick: No. 17 (change: -2) to Montreal
My final ranking: No. 31 (change: +12)

All things considered, and despite mixed on-ice results on a bad team, I thought Guhle handled himself well in his rookie season in the NHL last year. His skating, strength and overall athleticism have always been his calling cards and remain his biggest strengths. Now it’s just about refining the rest of his game, getting reps and continuing to establish himself as an anchor of the Canadiens’ blue line of the future.

Actual draft pick: No. 19 (change: -1) to the Rangers
My final ranking: No. 38 (change: +18)

Schneider always had the physical tools to project into the role he has played these last two seasons: 15-16 minutes a night of sound defensively-oriented hockey in third-pairing usage. His larger-than-most NHL sample to date, which has included a regular role in two playoff runs, earns him this spot in a do-over on that basis. The question was always if he had enough offence to his game to be more than a solid partner for someone else and play higher in the lineup. That still feels like it’s TBD (his play with the puck isn’t prohibitive but it remains fairly simple/straightforward).

Actual draft pick: No. 14 (change: -7) to Edmonton
My final ranking: No. 18 (change: -3)

Because of his athletic maturity, his skating, his physicality and his ability to play fast and hard, Holloway’s game was always projectable to the NHL as a third-line energy guy with some pop and skill. The question wasn’t whether he would be an NHLer, but whether he had the tools of finesse and on-ice smarts to become more than a straight-line guy. When Evander Kane and Zach Hyman stop being Evander Kane and Zach Hyman, the Oilers are going to need another player type like that who can play in the wing in their top six. It’ll be interesting to track whether Holloway can become that in time.

Actual draft pick: No. 45 (change: +23) to Los Angeles (now with Minnesota via trade)
My final ranking: No. 95 (change: +73)

Faber has been a fascinating case study in just how far skating and a good head on your shoulders can carry a modern defenceman. He has also grown an inch and added 10 pounds (he’s now 6-foot-1 and 200, up from 6 feet and 190 at the time of the draft, and I think I underestimated just how impressive of an athlete he was, even though we all knew he was an impressive one). His game is simple and efficient and sometimes that can really work with the right tools/smarts, even if it lacks ambition and skill in some areas. In his case, it really works.

Actual draft pick: No. 124 (change: +101) to Montreal
My final ranking: No. 42 (change: +19)

Farrell was an interesting one in his draft year, because he’d played two seasons at the national program before it as one of the youngest players in his age 2001 group and he was behind the development curve of his peers in a historically talented group (playing behind Jack Hughes, Cole Caufield, Trevor Zegras, Alex Turcotte, Matt Boldy and company). Then his November birthday made him one of the older first-year eligibles in his actual draft class, but he was again on a loaded team, this time with the Chicago Steel where players like Brendan Brisson, Matt Coronato, Sam Colangelo and Owen Power got more attention. As a result, I think people saw him as the classic small-and-talented junior player whose game wouldn’t translate up levels. I think what that missed — and I wrote this at the time — was just how crafty and smart he was. I don’t think it should have come as any surprise to people when he went for 100 points and won USHL player of the year in his post-draft season, or when he became the ECAC’s player of the year in his sophomore season as the second-most productive player (53 points in 34 games, to 1.56 points per game) in college hockey to Adam Fantilli. Don’t be surprised if he becomes a second-line playmaking winger in the NHL in time either. He just gets it out there offensively.

Actual draft pick: No. 23 (change: -1) to Philadelphia
My final ranking: No. 34 (change: +10)

As with Byfield, injuries and the pandemic have played an outsized role in Forester’s development since the draft. And yet he has found his way to where you’d hoped he would have anyway, leading Lehigh Valley in scoring last year while registering seven points in eight games with the Flyers. Now it’s up to him to win a full-time job and earn a spot as the middle-six scoring winger he’s capable of being.

Actual draft pick: No. 28 (change: +3) to Ottawa
My final ranking: No. 64 (change: +39)

“Greig is a player I’ve always been a little lower on than most (he likely gets picked in the 20s or 30s) so I spent some time making sure I got him right this summer and while those viewings helped him slide up my list a few slots, I still have some reservations … Many scouts have fallen in love with his fiery, tenacious style. Greig never looks like he’s disengaged and keeps his feet moving to play a physical style (though that fiery nature can sometimes get him into trouble). I like his skill enough. He can play in traffic without looking panicked or rushed. He’s got a decent wrist shot, even if I wouldn’t say he’s a natural scorer. And he’ll surprise defenders every so often with a deft pass. But he hasn’t consistently shown me the dynamism I typically expect out of a first-round talent. I’ll concede that Greig is a late birthday player who never lacks effort and should get the most out of himself, though, which could help him climb further up my board in 2020-21.”

That’s an excerpt from my draft board on Greig. As it turns out, getting the most out of himself and climbing my board is exactly what he did. That’s 0/3 for Scott on Sens first-round picks in 2020 for those keeping track at home.

Actual draft pick: No. 42 (change: +16) to Nashville
My final ranking: No. 58 (change: +32)

The more familiar I’ve gotten with Evangelista and his game, the more I’ve liked him as a prospect with each passing season. That’s not uncommon for London products who don’t tend to play as much pre-draft as top kids with other OHL clubs do. I’m a big believer now. He’s going to be an important piece of Nashville’s new-look top nine this year and if his finish to last season (15 points in 24 NHL games and then 15 points in 16 AHL playoff games as Milwaukee’s leading scorer) was any indication, he’s ready for it.

27. Anaheim Ducks: LHD Shakir Mukhamadullin

Actual draft pick: No. 20 (change: -7) to New Jersey (now with San Jose via trade)
My final ranking: No. 56 (change: +29)

As with Quinn, I actually became a Mukhamadullin truther over the years when:

1. The discourse around how high he was picked tried to position him as some kind of scrub.

2. A few tough moments at the world juniors poured fuel onto that fire.

He was a little gangly and awkward pre- and briefly post-draft and the progress that needed to happen to make a first-round selection on him worthwhile meant that I wouldn’t have taken him where the Devils did, but his profile wasn’t without appeal and he has now hit most of the checkpoints you’d hope for a player like him — impressing in the KHL and AHL at an early age, beginning to add muscle (his frame could still use a little more, but it’s coming) and polishing off some of his deficiencies. He profiles like he’s going to be a good two-way NHL defenceman at this point and looks like a perfectly fine first-round pick.

Actual draft pick: No. 25 (change: -3) to Colorado (now with Montreal via trade)
My final ranking: No. 46 (change: +18)

Barron was a safe pick then and he has safely worked out since. His game screamed solid, two-way No. 4-5 defenceman who is better than a third-pairing depth guy and probably slightly below the true core guys. And that’s what he’s in the process of becoming.

Justin Barron. (David Kirouac / USA Today)

Actual draft pick: No. 68 (change: +39) to Vegas
My final ranking: No. 28 (change: -1)

These final three slots in this new top 31 were hard to fill. The 28 players in front felt like they had to be first-rounders in a do-over. Now we’re into a group of players who could reasonably be swapped out with any number of the honourable mentions. Cormier gets the edge within that group on the back of what he accomplished in junior (a two-time QMJHL First All-Star Team member, a one-time QMJHL defenceman of the year, a world junior gold medalist, and one of the only defencemen in modern junior hockey history to put together a combined 40-plus goals and 100-plus points in a single regular season and playoffs) and a strong rookie season on a bad AHL team. He gets pucks through from the point as well as any defenceman in the sport and I’ve always felt his game defensively was underrated because of his stature and his style offensively. I’m confident he’s going to become a productive NHL defenceman in the vein of a Shayne Gostisbehere.

30. Dallas Stars: LHD William Wallinder

Actual draft pick: No. 33 (change: +3) to Detroit
My final ranking: No. 36 (change: +6)

Wallinder had raw appeal in his draft year and it has begun to take shape nicely enough to warrant inclusion here after two excellent (or close) age-adjusted seasons in the SHL, the first of which won him Sweden’s prestigious junior player of the year award. He’s also still one of the youngest players on this list.

31. San Jose Sharks: C Thomas Bordeleau

Actual draft pick: No. 38 (change: +7) to San Jose
My final ranking: No. 33 (change: +2)

This could have just as well been another sub-6-foot forward who has produced well in the AHL now but hasn’t broken through. I considered Stars first-rounder Mavrik Bourque, fellow Sharks prospect Daniil Gushchin and KHL standout and Wild prospect Marat Khusnutdinov. Bordeleau’s craftiness, the way he has worked to add details to his game, and his faceoff acumen gave him the slight edge for the last spot.

Honourable mentions (alphabetical order):

LHD Emil Andrae
Actual draft pick: No. 54 to Philadelphia
My final ranking: No. 21

C Mavrik Bourque
Actual draft pick: No. 30 to Dallas
My final ranking: No. 16

LW/RW Brendan Brisson
Actual draft pick: No. 29 to Vegas
My final ranking: No. 35

RW William Dufour
Actual draft pick: No. 152 to the Islanders
My final ranking: Not ranked

RW/LW Daniil Gushchin
Actual draft pick: No. 76 to the Sharks
My final ranking: No. 40

C Marat Khusnutdinov
Actual draft pick: No. 37 to Minnesota
My final ranking: No. 48

LW Jake Neighbours
Actual draft pick: No. 26 to St. Louis
My final ranking: No. 51

RHD Topi Niemela
Actual draft pick: No. 64 to Toronto
My final ranking: No. 54

C Connor Zary
Actual draft pick: No. 24 to Calgary
My final ranking: No. 13

Takeaways

As I said in the intro, I don’t think there’s any doubt my board has had more losses than wins this time around. I’m happy with where I was at on players like Perfetti, Farrell, Lundell, Cormier, Gushchin, Andrae. I think I was closer to where the draft should have been with my slightly more restrained views of guys like Drysdale and Holloway. There were other players, not discussed here, who I was rightly lower on: Sharks first-rounder Ozzy Wiesblatt, Ducks early second-rounder Sam Colangelo, Jets early second-rounder Daniel Torgersson, Flames second-rounder Yan Kuznetsov, etc. I was aligned with the consensus on Raymond, Mercer, Jarvis, Holtz, Reichel and others. I’m proud of how measured my analysis on Mukhamadullin and Quinn was, even when it wasn’t elsewhere.

But none of that offsets my misses on the three Sens first-rounders, the first two of whom now rank atop this list, nor the fact I was collectively too low on the better defenders in the draft (Guhle, Schneider and Faber in particular). Just as there are guys like Wiesblatt that I was rightly lower on, there are also players not highlighted here who I was too high on: mainly Noel Gunler, who I always knew came with real risk/bust potential (though I think there’s still a chance he hits and I know the Canes believe he has NHL upside), and Jan Mysak, whose pro struggles continue to make me scratch my head.

I do attribute some of the volatility in my list to the volatility that comes with every weak draft (2020 is one of the weakest of the six classes I’ve re-drafted to date), volatility which was compounded by the pandemic. But there are definitely lessons to be learned on Stützle and Sanderson, and maybe even more so on some of the defensively inclined defenders I was too low on. They’re the hardest player types to evaluate, but the players NHL teams are increasingly placing a premium on. I need to be more cognizant of that in my work.

Previous re-drafts and ranking reviews:

(Illustration: Ray Orr / The Athletic. Photos: Kirk Irwin / Getty Images, Chris Tanouye / Freestyle Photography / Getty Images)

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